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MLB Team Trend Analysis

Last 3 games hot/cold + Pythagorean Win% divergence

📅 As of 2026-09-08

Last 3 Games: Hot / Cold Teams

Teams that won all three recent games are "hot"; teams that lost all three are "cold." Short-term momentum can signal which clubs are peaking heading into their next series.

🔥 Hot (3-0 last 3)
BOS Boston Red Sox 3-0 4.3 R/G
AZ Arizona Diamondbacks 3-0 4.0 R/G
LAD Los Angeles Dodgers 3-0 6.3 R/G
🥶 Cold (0-3 last 3)
WSH Washington Nationals 0-3 5.3 RA/G

Pythagorean Win% Divergence

Pythagorean Win% estimates expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowed: RS^1.83 / (RS^1.83 + RA^1.83) (Pythagenport formula, used by Baseball Reference). A large positive gap means the team wins more than their run differential suggests — often bullpen strength, clutch hitting, or luck. Historically, such gaps tend to close over the course of a season.

▲ Outperforming Pythagorean (Lucky?) TOP 7

TeamW-LActualPythDelta
TB 85-58 .594 .534 +.060
CIN 69-75 .479 .426 +.053
PHI 81-63 .563 .526 +.037
HOU 73-71 .507 .474 +.033
AZ 77-68 .531 .500 +.031
TOR 72-73 .497 .470 +.026
TEX 71-73 .493 .467 +.026

▼ Underperforming Pythagorean (Unlucky?) TOP 7

TeamW-LActualPythDelta
DET 66-78 .458 .538 .080
LAA 54-90 .375 .441 .066
WSH 67-79 .459 .505 .046
SF 60-85 .414 .448 .034
COL 55-88 .385 .415 .030
CHC 81-64 .559 .584 .026
PIT 71-73 .493 .517 .024
Key insight: Teams with large positive deltas tend to win close games at an unsustainable rate — watch for regression. Teams with large negative deltas (like LAD at -0.076 this season) are stronger than their record shows and likely to improve. This metric is a guide, not a guarantee — elite bullpens genuinely outperform Pythagorean expectations over time.
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