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MLB Team Trend Analysis

Last 3 games hot/cold + Pythagorean Win% divergence

📅 As of 2026-10-17

Last 3 Games: Hot / Cold Teams

Teams that won all three recent games are "hot"; teams that lost all three are "cold." Short-term momentum can signal which clubs are peaking heading into their next series.

🔥 Hot (3-0 last 3)

No qualifying teams

🥶 Cold (0-3 last 3)

No qualifying teams

Pythagorean Win% Divergence

Pythagorean Win% estimates expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowed: RS^1.83 / (RS^1.83 + RA^1.83) (Pythagenport formula, used by Baseball Reference). A large positive gap means the team wins more than their run differential suggests — often bullpen strength, clutch hitting, or luck. Historically, such gaps tend to close over the course of a season.

▲ Outperforming Pythagorean (Lucky?) TOP 7

TeamW-LActualPythDelta
CIN 75-87 .463 .403 +.060
TB 98-64 .605 .557 +.048
SD 91-71 .562 .527 +.035
PHI 88-74 .543 .510 +.034
ATH 64-98 .395 .369 +.026
AZ 86-76 .531 .506 +.025
TEX 80-82 .494 .470 +.024

▼ Underperforming Pythagorean (Unlucky?) TOP 7

TeamW-LActualPythDelta
DET 76-86 .469 .547 .078
LAA 62-100 .383 .437 .054
SF 65-97 .401 .442 .041
COL 58-104 .358 .397 .039
CHC 89-73 .549 .586 .037
WSH 77-85 .475 .503 .028
NYM 74-88 .457 .479 .023
Key insight: Teams with large positive deltas tend to win close games at an unsustainable rate — watch for regression. Teams with large negative deltas (like LAD at -0.076 this season) are stronger than their record shows and likely to improve. This metric is a guide, not a guarantee — elite bullpens genuinely outperform Pythagorean expectations over time.
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