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MLB 2026 Sabermetrics Analysis

Pace projections · Pythagorean divergence · Japanese player spotlight

📅 As of 2026-09-08

162-Game Pace Projections

Batting — HR
PlayerTeamHRPace
Kyle Schwarber PHI 43 ▶48
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC 41 ▶46
Yordan Alvarez HOU 38 ▶43
Junior Caminero TB 38 ▶43
Matt Olson ATL 37 ▶42
Batting — AVG
PlayerTeamAVG
Luis Arraez PHI 0.316
Yordan Alvarez HOU 0.314
Chandler Simpson TB 0.308
Nick Gonzales PIT 0.306
Yandy Díaz TB 0.305
Batting — RBI
PlayerTeamRBIPace
Sal Stewart CIN 107 ▶120
Alec Burleson STL 104 ▶116
Jordan Walker STL 100 ▶112
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC 97 ▶108
CJ Abrams WSH 95 ▶105
Batting — SB
PlayerTeamSBPace
Nasim Nuñez WSH 45 ▶50
Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY 40 ▶45
Chandler Simpson TB 39 ▶44
Bobby Witt Jr. KC 38 ▶42
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC 35 ▶39
Pitching — ERA
PlayerTeamERA
Jacob Misiorowski MIL 1.97
Cam Schlittler NYY 2.04
Chris Sale ATL 2.10
Dylan Cease TOR 2.40
Parker Messick CLE 2.53
Pitching — W
PlayerTeamWPace
Sonny Gray BOS 17 ▶19
Cristopher Sánchez PHI 16 ▶18
Chase Burns CIN 15 ▶17
Foster Griffin CLE 15 ▶17
Eduardo Rodriguez AZ 15 ▶17
Pitching — SO
PlayerTeamSOPace
Gavin Williams CLE 228 ▶255
Dylan Cease TOR 227 ▶254
Jacob Misiorowski MIL 227 ▶254
Jesús Luzardo PHI 221 ▶249
Cam Schlittler NYY 210 ▶238
Pitching — SV
PlayerTeamSVPace
Bryan Baker TB 39 ▶44
Riley O'Brien STL 36 ▶40
Cade Smith CLE 35 ▶39
Mason Miller SD 34 ▶38
Aroldis Chapman BOS 33 ▶37

Pace = current value ÷ games played × 162. AVG and ERA are not projected. See glossary for more.

Team Spotlight

Philadelphia Phillies — Multi-Category Leaders

PHI currently leads 2 statistical categories, showing dominance across both offense and pitching.

HR #1AVG #1

Japanese Players in MLB Rankings

Run Differential Top 5 vs. Pythagorean Win%

MIL
+169 Pyth .618
LAD
+155 Pyth .611
CHC
+131 Pyth .584
ATL
+119 Pyth .589
NYY
+117 Pyth .590

Pythagorean Win% = RS^1.83 / (RS^1.83 + RA^1.83). Full divergence table: Pythagorean analysis →