MLB 2026 Sabermetrics Analysis

Pace projections · Pythagorean divergence · Japanese player spotlight

📅 As of 2026-07-15

162-Game Pace Projections

Batting — HR
PlayerTeamHRPace
Kyle Schwarber PHI 32 ▶53
Yordan Alvarez HOU 31 ▶51
Ben Rice NYY 29 ▶49
Junior Caminero TB 28 ▶48
James Wood WSH 28 ▶47
Batting — AVG
PlayerTeamAVG
Otto Lopez MIA 0.334
Luis Arraez SF 0.330
Yandy Díaz TB 0.322
Yordan Alvarez HOU 0.318
Nick Gonzales PIT 0.308
Batting — RBI
PlayerTeamRBIPace
Jordan Walker STL 74 ▶126
Yordan Alvarez HOU 70 ▶116
Luis García Jr. WSH 68 ▶114
Ben Rice NYY 68 ▶115
CJ Abrams WSH 67 ▶112
Batting — SB
PlayerTeamSBPace
Nasim Nuñez WSH 34 ▶57
Bobby Witt Jr. KC 30 ▶50
Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY 26 ▶44
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC 24 ▶41
José Ramírez CLE 24 ▶40
Pitching — ERA
PlayerTeamERA
Jacob Misiorowski MIL 1.62
Cam Schlittler NYY 2.05
Chris Sale ATL 2.20
Eduardo Rodriguez AZ 2.29
Sonny Gray BOS 2.54
Pitching — W
PlayerTeamWPace
Aaron Ashby MIL 12 ▶20
Chase Burns CIN 11 ▶19
Sonny Gray BOS 11 ▶19
Cristopher Sánchez PHI 11 ▶18
Sandy Alcantara MIA 10 ▶17
Pitching — SO
PlayerTeamSOPace
Jacob Misiorowski MIL 167 ▶282
Dylan Cease TOR 148 ▶250
Cristopher Sánchez PHI 144 ▶240
Cam Schlittler NYY 137 ▶231
Jesús Luzardo PHI 136 ▶227
Pitching — SV
PlayerTeamSVPace
Cade Smith CLE 28 ▶47
Bryan Baker TB 25 ▶43
Mason Miller SD 25 ▶42
Jhoan Duran PHI 24 ▶40
Riley O'Brien STL 24 ▶41

Pace = current value ÷ games played × 162. AVG and ERA are not projected. See glossary for more.

Japanese Players in MLB Rankings

Run Differential Top 5 vs. Pythagorean Win%

LAD
+149 Pyth .654
MIL
+126 Pyth .633
ATL
+92 Pyth .601
NYY
+91 Pyth .599
CHC
+52 Pyth .552

Pythagorean Win% = RS^1.83 / (RS^1.83 + RA^1.83). Full divergence table: Pythagorean analysis →