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MLB 2026 Sabermetrics Analysis

Pace projections · Pythagorean divergence · Japanese player spotlight

📅 As of 2026-10-17

162-Game Pace Projections

Batting — HR
PlayerTeamHRPace
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC 45 ▶45
Kyle Schwarber PHI 45 ▶45
Pete Alonso BAL 43 ▶43
Yordan Alvarez HOU 42 ▶42
Junior Caminero TB 42 ▶42
Batting — AVG
PlayerTeamAVG
Yordan Alvarez HOU 0.316
Gabriel Moreno AZ 0.311
Luis Arraez PHI 0.310
Chandler Simpson TB 0.306
Otto Lopez MIA 0.305
Batting — RBI
PlayerTeamRBIPace
Alec Burleson STL 116 ▶116
Pete Alonso BAL 113 ▶114
Sal Stewart CIN 112 ▶112
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC 107 ▶107
CJ Abrams WSH 106 ▶106
Batting — SB
PlayerTeamSBPace
Nasim Nuñez WSH 49 ▶49
Chandler Simpson TB 46 ▶46
Bobby Witt Jr. KC 45 ▶45
Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY 41 ▶41
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC 41 ▶41
Pitching — ERA
PlayerTeamERA
Jacob Misiorowski MIL 1.80
Cam Schlittler NYY 1.95
Chris Sale ATL 2.16
Dylan Cease TOR 2.40
Yoshinobu Yamamoto LAD 2.53
Pitching — W
PlayerTeamWPace
Sonny Gray BOS 18 ▶18
Cristopher Sánchez PHI 18 ▶18
Jacob Misiorowski MIL 16 ▶16
Drew Rasmussen TB 16 ▶16
Eduardo Rodriguez AZ 16 ▶16
Pitching — SO
PlayerTeamSOPace
Jacob Misiorowski MIL 252 ▶252
Gavin Williams CLE 248 ▶248
Dylan Cease TOR 239 ▶239
Cam Schlittler NYY 239 ▶240
Cristopher Sánchez PHI 231 ▶231
Pitching — SV
PlayerTeamSVPace
Bryan Baker TB 41 ▶41
Cade Smith CLE 41 ▶41
Mason Miller SD 38 ▶38
Riley O'Brien STL 38 ▶38
David Bednar NYY 35 ▶35

Pace = current value ÷ games played × 162. AVG and ERA are not projected. See glossary for more.

Japanese Players in MLB Rankings

Run Differential Top 5 vs. Pythagorean Win%

MIL
+214 Pyth .633
LAD
+201 Pyth .629
CHC
+147 Pyth .586
NYY
+138 Pyth .594
ATL
+116 Pyth .577

Pythagorean Win% = RS^1.83 / (RS^1.83 + RA^1.83). Full divergence table: Pythagorean analysis →